Tag: Bobi Wine

At least for 5 years (2021-2026), Robert Kyagulanyi’s NUP had demonstrated political invincibility in Buganda region.

Their victory in 2021 had largely benefited from the Covid lockdown which scared many complacent, elderly and frail NRM cadres into hiding in their homes, and prevented candidate Museveni from being able to freely move around to address rallies and interact with large crowds of supporters while defending his track record.

And as a result, many NRM ministers were defeated as NUP grabbed up to 55 MP seats in Buganda, leaving the Movement candidates to share the remaining less than 25 MP slots.

But the Movement went back on the drawing board and had all its cadres coalesce under their pressure group-“Buganda on Museveni.” This was headed by Buvuma county MP Robert Migadde Ndugwa with minister Haruna Kasolo and AG Kiwanuka Kiryowa serving as the patrons and chief funders.

With the unanimous backing of all actors under the “Buganda on Museveni” arrangement, Haruna Kasolo realized that there was need to leverage the CEC position and re-align the NRM formal leadership structures in Buganda. He offered himself and won the position of CEC vice chairman for Buganda.

He won and took charge of NRM in Kabaka’s region last September. As the NRM chairman for Buganda, the task to reclaim Kabaka’s region back to the Movement became his major pre-occupation. Kasolo didn’t take the role lightly. It was a huge task, which he commenced upon with enthusiasm.

He organized meetings and rallies in the different zones into which Buganda had been partitioned. During these meetings, cadres and mobilizers were asked to give feedback without fsar of retribution and advise on what needed to be rectified for the Movement to once again thrive and win back its popularity in Buganda.

The same meetings had key actors like Kiwanuka Kiryowa coming around to help in cajoling independents who had lost party primaries to bow out and back flag bearers. Many accepted and rallied behind them. Kiwanuka Kiryowa was to later on organize a private meeting between those compliant cadres and Museveni, the party chairman.

Kasolo also ensured that there was frequent interaction between Museveni and the NRM MPs who in 2021 had won their races, against NUP rivals, in Buganda. This was additional opportunity for Gen Museveni to listen to these influential Movementists who were beginning to become exhausted and needed replenishing amidst fear that Kyagulanyi’s wave was still potent and very around.

Many of these were Kgagulanyi-phobic, had become timid and needed re-energizing by the president, and Kasolo ensured this happened.

The pulling out of independents in places like Mityana greatly boosted chances for flag bearers like Judith Nabakooba to win their races against strong NUP rivals.

In Kyotera county itself, Kasolo faced rivals inside within his own NRM backyard and these were cajoled to bow out, which increased his chances to prevail against NUP’s John Paul Mpalanyi and singer King Saha who had opened war on him, being a born of Kyotera himself.

The removal of independents also reduced tensions inside the NRM mobilisation groups and enabled flag bearers to concentrate only on their opposition rivals while at the same time popularizing candidate Museveni.

The few independents who became sturbon and refused to quit where easily isolated and neutralized by Kiryowa and Kasolo who kept alerting security and the President about their sabotage.

Kasolo personally knows every constituency in Buganda the way he knows the back of his palm and this enabled him to directly keep in touch with all his flag bearers, while frequently updating party chairman Museveni on the feedback he kept getting.

The good personal rapport Kasolo has with the bosses at Kyadondo, especially with the deputy SG Rose Namayanja, greatly boosted coordination and the flow of the relevant logistics to keep the mobilisation machine well oiled.

DELIVERING THE FINAL PUNCH

By the time, the final vote was counted and tallied, Kyagulanyi’s invincibility in Buganda had significantly been diminished. Though he still had upper hand, the effectiveness of the NUP political machine was decisively checked and kept under control.

That’s how, the man from Magere ended up winning in only 17 districts including those from Busoga-Jinja City, Jinja rural and Iganga. In Buganda, Kyagulanyi was decisively defeated by Haruna Kasolo’s candidate Gen YK Museveni.

The reclaimed districts which Museveni comfortably won in Kasolo’s region or had his electoral perfomance improve include Kiboga 61%, Mubende 71%, Rakai 67%, Nakasongola 67%, Ssembabule 84%, Nakaseke 66%, Lyantonde 78%, Buvuma 55%, Kyagulanyi’s birth place of Gomba 59%, Kyankwanzi 71%, Kalangala 51%, Lwengo 53% and Kassanda 55%.

Even in those Buganda region districts where candidate Museveni didn’t win, his electoral performance was much improved compared to his scores in 2021. In Kyotera he scored 45%, in Moses Byaruhanga-targeted Kampala 45%, Luwero 38%, Masaka rural 43%, Mpigi 45.2%, Mukono 33%, Kayunga 47%, Wakiso 35%, Mityana 43%, Buikwe 38%, Bukomansimbi 44%, Butambala 42% and Kalungu 41%.

All this shows that Haruna Kasolo’s mobilisation efforts, as the new regional chairman, were not in vain. It’s clear that even in districts where candidate Museveni didn’t win outrightly, his performance greatly improved. Where he won, the margin the margin was real high and where he lost, Kgagulangi carried the day with close margins and not much.

This simply means that with sustained mobilisation, improved service delivery and consistent engagement with especially the young people (who the veteran leader from Rwakitura will need to listen to at Baraza-like meetings as opposed to throwing money and teargas to them), its possible the Kasolo-championed political re-alignment in Buganda can replenish the ruling party’s support back to 75% and more, where it used to be before the Kyagulanyi wave came in 2021.

The experiences of how Musevenists like Moses Byaruhanga and Rebecca Otengo gradually wooed over Lango, Acholi & West Nile sub regions, which had hitherto been hostile, is indicative of the fact that its possible for voters to open up and give Museveni or his NRM a second chance.

The greater North communities were even harder to win over because they had historical grievances against Museveni’s NRM, which ended their military and political domination in the pre-1986 period. The grievances of Kabaka’s people in Buganda aren’t that entrenched, which makes it easier for Gen Museveni to mend fences, bridge bridges and find common ground once again.

NRM SWEEPS MP RACES

Beyond the Presidential race, which saw Museveni narrowly lose Buganda region to Kyagulanyi, the Kasolo-coordinated ruling party MP candidates did exceptionally well. The ruling party won 53 MP seats in Kabaka’s region, compared to NUP’s 41.

This means that the ruling NRM will once again command the leadership of Buganda caucus in Parliament, which has been in the hands of Muwanga Kivumbi, who gratefully was defeated by journalist Eriasa Mukiibi Sserunjogi, the PSST Ramathan Goobi’s young brother who stood on Independent ticket but is NRM-friendly.

The NRM MP-elects from Buganda region include Ntenjeru north’s Amos Lugoloobi, Mawokota north’s Amelia Kyambadde, Kassanda south’s Abdul Bisaaso, Mawogola west’s Anita Kawooya Bangirana, Kyankwanzi’s Anna Maria Nankabirwa, Budyebo county’s Eng Bernardo Kimeze Sebuga (ministerial material), Bukuya’s Michael K Bukenya, Kyamuswa’s Caroline Nanyondo, Nakaseke south’s Charles K Nsereko, Lwengo’s Cissy Namujju, Kiboga’s Desire Muhooza (also GSS’s daughter), Mawogola south’s Dez Byuma, Buikwe’s Diana Mutasingwa and Kooki’s Didas Tayebwa.

Others are Lyantonde’s Doreen B Katushabe, Ntwete county’s Edward Kikabi, Bukoto mid-west’s Emmanuel Kiyimba, Lwemiyaga’s Emmanuel Rwashande, Kabula’s Enos Asiimwe, Kiboga west’s Erick Lule, Ssembabule’s Florence Nambaziira, Ntenjeru south’s Fred Baseke (beat Kyagulanyi’s right hand man Patrick Nsanja), Nakawa east’s Fred Ruhindi, Mawogola north’s Godfrey Aine Sodo Kaguta, Kyotera’s Haruna Kasolo, Mityana south’s Henry Kamya Makumbi, Mubende’s Hope Grania Nakazibwe, Buwekula’s Joseph Kakooza (beat Mukasa Mbidde) and Mityana’s Judith Nabakooba.

There are also Rakai’s Juliet Kinyamatama, Nakaseke Central’s Kabuye Kyofa Togabye, Kiboga east’s Kefa Kiwanuka, Busiro south’s Kenon Opio, Kawempe south’s Madina Nsereko, Kampala central’s Minsa Kabanda, Busiro north’s Moses Mayanja, Bukoto West’s Muhammad Ssentayi, Mityana north’s Mohammed Nsegumire Kibedi (ministerial material), Butemba county’s Patrick Nyanzi Bingi, Kassanda’s Rebecca Atukunda (woman MP who beat NUP women’s league chairperson Flavia K Nabagabe), Gomba west’s Robinah Rwakojo Gureme, Bukomansimbi’s Ruth Katushabe, Bukomansimbi north’s Salim Kisekka, Bukoto east’s Sarah Kityo Babirye, Nakaseke’s Sarah Najjuma, Buyamba county’s Ssemwanga Gyaviira, Entebbe municipality’s Steven Gashaija Shyaka, Mawokota south’s Susan Nakawuki, Gomba’s Sylivia Nayebale, Nakasongola’s Victorious Zawedde, Kasambya county’s David Kabanda, Nakaseke north’s Wilber Ahebwa and Bujumba county’s Willy Lugoloobi (in Kalangala district).

THE INDEPENDENTS TOO
There are high chances of the NRM agenda dominating the business of Buganda caucus, while pushing NUP in a very uncomfortable minority, because there is a significant number of newly-elected independents who are Musevenists at heart and will inevitably be caucusing with the ruling party.

Examples of these include Bukomansimbi south’s Hassan Mukiibi (he is NRM 311 & has even been working in state house), Butambala’s Eriasa Mukiibi Sserunjogi and woman MP Lydia Mirembe who until 2021 was the Butambala woman MP on the NRM ticket.

The trio tactfully stood on the independent ticket in order to circumvent widespread resentment which they expected voters tl have towards NRM in their respective constituencies. Otherwise they have no problem with NRM in whose 2026-2031 Cabinet Eriasa might end up serving.

A former Sunday Mpnitor editor, Eriasa is very intellectual, politically sophisticated and merits being rewarded and empowered with a ministerial posting, having defeated the whole NUP Deputy President (Muwanga Kivumbi) who Gen Museveni passionately hates.

Indeed, its many years since Butambala (which is home to the new IGG, Hajji Moses Kigongo, PSST Goobi etc) last had a minister in Museveni’s Cabinet. Eriasa could fall into things as Museveni seeks consolidation of the political humiliation NUP was dealt in Butambala during the 15th January polling.